Racing to the Fossil Exit

Let's start with what I know best, the automotive world. Articles from all corners of the earth are reporting how the hunt for cleaner, and especially more economical, vehicles is on. From Joe Six Pack in the US to Old Wang in rural China, everyone is at least thinking twice before sticking with what they have always known as this is hitting them where it hurts, their wallets. Only last week the price of petrol in California raced past 6 bucks a gallon. While in most markets the switch to electric is too recent to count as real, there are exceptions like the Netherlands which has been electrifying at a steady clip for over 10 years on the back of the company car fleet. Given the negative sentiment on electric, getting rid of all these cars in the small local market has been impossible. That is, until now. Sales of second-hand EVs doubled in April compared to 2025 while the net outflow of electric cars into other countries more than halved. You can always trust the Dutch to follow the savings, but those are massive changes in behavior after only a couple of weeks, even for them.

It's not just electric cars that are hot commodities right now. The entire electric supply chain is on fire. Heat pumps, wind power, stationary batteries,... everyone is looking for information, requesting quotes and pulling the trigger on orders. You can find another proof point in the exports of solar panels from China in the month of March. The country exported a whopping 68 GW of solar PV, or 50% higher than the previous record. To put that in perspective, it is equivalent to the entire solar production capacity of the country of Spain. In one month!

We all know that people revert back to their old habits very quickly. But the longer the trouble keeps brewing, the more entrenched the switch will become. Going electric is now not just greener and cheaper, it also gives people an important advantage they are lacking: security. The economic impact on those with a petrol guzzling car in front of their gas heated house has diverged quickly and massively compared to the EV driving, heat pump warming and solar roof sporting neighbor. Most are not about to get caught with the pants down again. Fatih Birol, the chief of the International Energy Agency, put it marvelously. The vase is broken, the damage is done - it will be very difficult to put the pieces back together. I would see the exit of the United Arab Emirates out of Opex in that light. The race to get as much hydrocarbons out of the ground is on, they want to increase production and grab as much as they can now, before it is too late.